- 1. Flooding
- 2. Shortage of water
- 3. Famine and disease
- 4. Migration and refugees
- 5. Collapse of the financial system
- 6. Economic collapse
- 7. War and civil unrest
- 8. Pollution, in particular as a result of nuclear war, fallout and waste
- 9. Tipping points
- 10. Panic
Let's have a look at the many concerns and dangers associated with global warming and the resulting changes in climate around the world. I've tentatively grouped them into ten points.
And without government action to move people to newly-built cities, they will continue to live on land most prone to flooding and most exposed to tsunamis, hurricanes, cyclones, tornadoes and thunderstorms, until a disaster hits them like we've seen happen in New Orleans. The task ahead is many scales larger than the evacuation of New Orleans, which after all occurred in the richest nation on earth while all other infrastructure in the U.S. was in good working order. Ironically, global warming comes with increased risks not only of flooding, but also of shortage of water.
2. Shortage of water.
Heatwaves and shortage of potable water cause dehydration and heat stroke in people and livestock, making them more vulnerable to diseases. Lack of rain and irrigation results in loss of stock and crop, and increases risks of wildfires.
As people and animals move to more fertile grounds, overgrazing of land and clearing land of trees could cause desertification there as well. All this, combined with the increased risk of flooding, should increase concerns for famine and disease.
3. Famine and disease.
Starvation is one of the biggest unconscious human fears that may well become a reality that is daily displayed on TV. The most fertile land is typically located just above sea level, where rivers enter the sea. Due to climate change, many areas will need to switch to other crops. This will take time, further contributing to transitional if not permanent shortages of food everywhere. Food storage and distribution will be hit by rising cost of cooling, while stored food will become exposed to pests and diseases in the face of increased humidity and in the absence of adequate refridgeration. Cost of transport will rise, while many roads may become inaccessable due to flooding and storm damage.
4. Migration and refugees.
Migration will stress the infrastructure of many cities, even if they weren't affected much directly by climate change in terms of famine, droughts, epidemics, flooding or storm damage. Apart from this, people will also be driven away from many areas by pollution, heat, pests, diseases, shortages of water and supplies, and collapse of infrastructure, medical care and security.
Many people will seek new habitats, while at the same time many countries will seek to stop refugees from crossing borders. Refugee camps are notorious for the outbreak of epidemics, such as cholera. Without proper planning and action, this could result in human tragedy at unprecedented scale, while refugee camps could become breeding grounds for new diseases like avian influenza.
|Natural disasters caused by climate change, from Wikipedia, Refugees|
5. Collapse of the financial system.
|The Biochar Economy|
Instead, carbon-based local currency may take over to some extent.
Uncertainty about this increases the risk that governments will simply become more dictatorial.
In the absence of market forces to guide developments, there will be increased risks that such dictatorial governments take actions that make things worse, resulting in total economic collapse.
6. Economic collapse.
Many countries face uncertain futures, as they are dependent on income from oil, coal, tourism or a single crop that cannot survive climate change. As an example, air travel could become too expense for tourists, taking away the single biggest revenue stream for many small countries. Entire industries, such as manufacturing of cars and airplanes, may collapse. Globalisation has made many industries dependent on access to resources and products that come from halfway around the world, while the cost of transport is likely to go up.
Again, such economic collapse may set the scene for dictatorship in many areas, increasing the risk of war and of wrong decisions being taken in general.
The above points should increase our concerns about the risk of wars and civil unrest. Production of weapons is one of the biggest industries worldwide, with the clout to influence governments. The oil industry is often regarded as the most powerful influence of global politics. Some countries will want quick and dramatic changes, while other countries may resist all calls for change or may want entirely different changes, setting up confrontation at a global scale and setting the scene for World War III. Within most countries, there will also be opposing groups. The smartest people, who we now need more than ever, may be killed, may end up in prison or may otherwise be silenced, while dictators seek to grab power without any intention of solving the problems.
|Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP|
8. Pollution, in particular as a result of nuclear war, fallout and waste.
|The Nuclear Delusion|
The nuclear industry may present itself as a "green" alternative, whereas nuclear fallout and waste should count as some of the biggest pollution dangers. As concerns about carbon emissions sink in, more countries may consider using nuclear power for electricity, despite its high cost, while many countries may seek to develop nuclear weapons in response to perceived increased risk of war in the light of the above points. The secrecy under which such development takes place gives cause to concern about global safety and security.
9. Tipping points.
|Will America be a desert by 2100?|
Droughts and fire could destroy the Amazon. The Arctic may lose all of its sea ice within years. Global warming may cause earthquakes, which can come with tsunamis and shockwaves that can also disturb submarine hydrates, causing them to release huge amounts of methane. While droughts, earthquakes and more turbulent weather come with loss of lives, infrastructure and fertile land, global warming can also cause tipping points to be crossed, making the greenhouse effect even worse.
So, instead of facing gradual changes that can be mitigated by planned action, we may suddenly face a future in which many if not most people will have little or no access to food, water, medicines, electricity and shelter, while diseases go rampant and gangs and warlords loot and devastate the few livable areas left. Human beings as a species will face the risk of total extinction, particularly if many species of animals and plants that humans depend on will disappear.
Once they do get the message, though, there's a risk of over-reaction edging into panic. This may result in people buying up all the food they can get hold of, trying to get their hands on weapons, etc. Unscrupulous companies may exploit the situation by deliberately creating scarcity of medicines, etc.
This is another reason to be open about these concerns and to come up with planning that makes sense.
Background: This post is an illustrated version - with minor editorial edits - of the original post of March 7, 2007, which was followed on April 8, 2007, by Ten Recommendations to deal with global warming. By early 2013, these two posts, together with another 2007 post at Gather (on the Hydrogen Economy) had been viewed by some 100,000 individual visitors.
For more background, view cutting-edge developments and proposals at the following two blogs, which have jointly received well over 1,000,000 views: